Building the New Dynasty

On By mpetrella

UPDATE: The reason Jiri Hudler and Tomas Holmstrom aren’t listed anywhere below is because they’re both unrestricted free agents, meaning that they’re no longer Red Wings unless they’re re-signed. Homer might retire (and if he doesn’t, he should have), and Jiri Hudler may chase dollars elsewhere. They don’t have trade value because they’ll be free to whoever wants them on July 1st. Sure, you could trade their negotiating rights, but certainly not for what you’re hoping to get to plug these holes. Last year, James Wisniewski drew a sixth round pick in exchange for the negotiating rights… Hudler won’t even draw that. Holmstrom, God love him, might have to call it a career and we’ll miss him dearly. But the more things change, the more we’ll have to deal with saying goodbye to long-loved heroes like him.

For some perspective, I’ll send it to Nashville Predators head coach Barry Trotz:

We used to look up at Detroit, feeling that we were a little inferior in terms of talent or whatever it may be. I think we’ve grown to the point where we have a great respect for the Detroit Red Wings but we’re not in awe of them.

And therein lies the rub. No one’s afraid of the Red Wings anymore. They’re totally predictable and no longer have an aura of mystique. Coach Babcock wants to get deeper (after mentioning that the Predators were the deeper team), and I’ve already called for some roster movement. While I certainly don’t have all the answers, I think we’re at a place where we can look at this logically and objectively. Let it be known that I absolutely hate playing these games because it never works out the way we think it’s going to… and it’s (essentially) a waste of time. But whatever, it’s April 22nd and all we have is time thanks to our underachieving Red Wings.

First of all, we know a few guys aren’t going anywhere: Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, and Bertuzzi are either untouchable, have extraordinarily long (and horrible) contracts, or have NTCs. Bertuzzi isn’t a top six kind of player any more and can contribute from the third line:

xxx — Datsyuk — Franzen
xxx — Zetterberg — xxx
xxx — xxx — Bertuzzi
xxx — xxx — xxx

Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader are restricted free agents and will be signed, you can just about guarantee that. Let’s slot them into the third and fourth line center roles, shall we?

xxx — Datsyuk — Franzen
xxx — Zetterberg — xxx
xxx — Helm — Bertuzzi
xxx — Abdelkader — xxx

Goose Nyquist proved he belongs on a scoring line and perhaps this early-exit wake-up call will be what the doctor ordered for Mr. Babcock to actually give a rookie a shot like that. Great chemistry with Pavel, let’s throw him there:

Nyquist — Datsyuk — Franzen
xxx — Zetterberg — xxx
xxx — Helm — Bertuzzi
xxx — Abdelkader — xxx

The ideal way of building a scoring line is to have two supremely skilled guys (one playmaker, and a trigger man) and team them up with someone to make some space for them. In other words, Nyquist and Datsyuk with Johan Franzen creating the time and space. For the second line, Zetterberg is your playmaker and any new top line player would be his trigger man. If the Wings CAN somehow pry Zach Parise (though I think it’s unlikely) or Alex Semin (who’s a head case), he’d be slotted in there along side a new big man? There are a few big men available via the free agent market, but they’re old(er) and I don’t know how much that’d differentiate from the current Wings. Guys like Doan and Smyth… they’d be traditional Wing targets, but it’s time to look past that philosophy. I know he’s hated in L.A., but a guy like Dustin Penner could be a potential Red Wing reclamation project. Who knows…

Nyquist — Datsyuk — Franzen
Parise/Semin? — Zetterberg — New Big Man?
xxx — Helm — Bertuzzi
xxx — Abdelkader — xxx

You’ll notice that Valtteri Filppula hasn’t slotted in yet. And it really burns me to have to write that because I love that kid. But with so many, as JJ said in the comments of the last post, middle six forwards, they start to become redundant. Zetterberg isn’t going anywhere… which means Flip might have to. I’d be heartbroken, but he might have to be, by default, the body that’s moved via trade (along with prospects and/or picks) to get a trigger man or big man for the second line.

Drew Miller has more than earned his stripes and deserves a spot moving forward, not to mention he’s under contract, can contribute from the lower lines, and too much turnover isn’t what the doctor ordered.

Nyquist — Datsyuk — Franzen
Parise/Semin? — Zetterberg — New Big Man?
xxx — Helm — Bertuzzi
xxx — Abdelkader — Miller

That leaves two slots open (along with two healthy scratch slots) and a returning Dan Cleary, Jan Mursak, Cory Emmerton, Valtteri Filppula, and a bevy of prospects and free agent targets to fill them. I think that Emmerton will be held onto (he’s a center, so unless they can find another center they like better, why not hold on to the league minimum guy that already knows the system, since he won’t be expected to play many minutes anyway?). Same goes for Jan Mursak, who really hasn’t had a chance to show what he’s got. For giggles, let’s throw them in the press box for this game — and Dan Cleary rounding out that third line:

Nyquist — Datsyuk — Franzen
Parise/Semin? — Zetterberg — New Big Man?
Cleary — Helm — Bertuzzi
xxx — Abdelkader — Miller
(Emmerton/Mursak)

That leaves us one slot, on the fourth line. It’s entirely possible they promote from within… someone like Tomas Tatar (who, like Nyquist, isn’t built for that role) or Joakim Andersson. Nobody else on the farm is ready for even that role… unless they really jump the gun on Riley Sheahan (but, to be clear, he’ll need some seasoning in Grand Rapids). Unless someone comes from Europe and blows the doors off of things (Teemu Pulkkinen, Calle Jarnkrok… neither of which is likely), they’ll be looking to the market again.

FORWARD CHECKLIST
:: Top Six Trigger Man
:: Big Man to Protect Top Six
:: Fourth Line Energy Winger

FORWARD SPARE PARTS
:: Valtteri Filppula (the only movable part with any trade value whatsoever)
:: Johan Franzen (if there’s another CBA buyout window or someone, somehow, somewhere takes on that albatross of a contract)
:: Patrick Eaves (who is hoping to be ready for training camp, but may be redundant with Miller… also, who takes him given his health?)
:: Potentially Dan Cleary, given his health and age, etc.
:: Prospects like Landon Ferraro, Tomas Tatar (yes, he’s expendable), Joakim Andersson.

———–

Well that was fun… how about the blueline? There are at least three holes currently, and some will sort themselves out… but the only guys that are signed for next season are Niklas Kronwall, Ian White, Jonathan Ericsson, and Jakub Kindl:

Kronwall — xxx
White — xxx
Kindl — Ericsson
xxx

Brendan Smith will almost certainly be on this team when the season opens. Whether he’s a top six guy or the de-facto 7th is yet to be seen, but I’d bet dollars to donuts he’s in the opening night lineup:

Kronwall — xxx
White — xxx
Smith — Ericsson
Kindl

Nicklas Lidstrom is in control of his own fate. If he wants to return, he’ll be on the team. Period. He may not be the #1 guy any longer, but he’ll play as long as he wants to. Whether or not he wants to is another story, and we’ll have to wait a few weeks to find out. They’ll definitely chase free agents replacements, but it’s quasi-slim-pickings this summer. Guys like Ryan Suter, Dennis Wideman, Pavel Kubina, and Jaroslav Spacek will be available and some may be able to fill that void a little bit.

Kronwall — new big timer
White — Lidstrom
Smith — Ericsson
Kindl

It’s entirely possible the Wings go to camp with more blueliners than they can use. There are a handful of top six guys available, but all they’d do is displace someone like Kindl. That list is fairy impressive, with Greg Zanon, Johnny Oduya, Chris Campoli, Milan Jurcina, and — blast from the past — Sheldon Souray on that list.

The restricted free agent defensemen is an incredible list, but I doubt any are available (unless their teams decide to trade their negotiating rights for whatever reason): Shea Weber, Mike Green, Matt Niskanen, and Erik Karlsson are in need of a new contract. I bet that zero of them make it to the market. Another RFA is Kyle Quincey… who I refuse to believe was acquired simply to be a rental. His play in the post-season wasn’t anything to write home about and he may be a tradeable asset at this point, particularly since it’ll take Ericsson-like money just to qualify him. That’s ugly. Also, who does he slot in for? You don’t pay a man 3.5M to sit in the press box. Nevertheless:

Kronwall — new big timer
White — Lidstrom
Smith — Ericsson
Quincey/Kindl?

DEFENSEMAN CHECKLIST
:: Nick Lidstrom’s decision
:: A top-flight defender, Lidstrom or otherwise
:: Another top six that can play NHL minutes

DEFENSE SPARE PARTS
:: Jakub Kindl (he doesn’t have much value on his own, but he could be packaged)
:: Kyle Quincey (may be a desirable piece for the right team)

Let’s posit another dream scenario… I doubt it’s likely because they’re division rivals and the alleged asking price is absolutely absurd (and the Wings simply DON’T have the pieces to make it happen), but Rick Nash is going to be moved at some point. Perhaps the price comes down because the Blue Jackets find zero suitors, but he’d slot in nicely on that other scoring line… potentially as both the big man AND the trigger man. But that’s the kind of move the team needs to become relevant again.

SO, TO RECAP
1. There needs to be changes. And relevant ones.
2. A top six goal scorer is a MINIMUM requirement.
3. They will likely need a big body for the top six, as well.
4. Even if Lidstrom returns, they’d probably like to add a new top defenseman.
5. They will need to allow prospects to actually play if they can.
6. They will be able to move some of our “middle six” guys, even if it means only acquiring draft picks for now.
7. Another bottom pairing defenseman couldn’t hurt.
8. Some of the changes will likely have to happen via trade since the free agent market isn’t exceptional.

9. Valtteri Filppula, Dan Cleary, and Jakub Kindl are the most likely, albeit not terribly likely, trade chips.
10. If someone was willing to take Johan Franzen and Kyle Quincey off of our hands, Godspeed little doodle.
11. The prospects that are worth anything are precisely the guys we can’t move. Jarnkrok, Pulkkinen, Jurco, Sheahan, Nyquist, Smith, and Almquist are dudes who will plug some of the holes that are coming soon.

12. Trading draft picks won’t help. First, the Wings don’t have a first rounder in this year’s draft.
13. This year’s draft sucks anyway.
14. 2013’s Draft will be the jam… the Wings are going to need some more bodies in the cupboard, but it’s the only chip they have.